VENEZUELA
End of "Chavismo" in Venezuela may not end authoritarianism
BY RICHARD BRAND
Last year 2011 was an epically bad year for authoritarian regimes, which
suffered setbacks in the form of revolt by their populations and, in
some cases, natural causes.
The Arab Spring brought the collapse of governments led by dictators in
Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, the last culminating in Moammar Gadhafi's
death by "crossfire" after being plucked by rebels from the drainage
ditch where he was cowering.
Leaders in Syria, Russia and elsewhere have been put on their heels by
protests. And a heart attack that killed North Korea's Kim Jong Il will
hopefully advance the cause of freedom in that country as well.
Natural causes have also played a role in weakening authoritarian
regimes in Latin America, with a cancer diagnosis for Venezuela's Hugo
Chávez casting serious doubt on his prospects for survival through
presidential elections scheduled for October 2012. Those elections were
expected to be competitive even before the cancer news broke.
After a series of surgeries and chemotherapy treatments, Chávez has
appeared visibly swollen and frail and unable to deliver the marathon
speeches that characterized his earlier leadership and vigorous campaign
style. Even if he survives until the vote, his physical weakness will
continue to undermine him politically.
It is in this context that politically divided Venezuela is likely to be
among those global powder kegs set alight in 2012.
Chávez's opponents sense opportunity to take leadership via the ballot
box. Meanwhile, Chávez's allies maneuver for a post-Chávez landscape,
fearful of losing control over everything from cushy patronage positions
to cocaine smuggling routes. Some elements are likely to resist a
democratic process at all costs.
While 2012 may mark the end of Chavismo in Venezuela, it may not
necessarily mark a return from authoritarianism.
The greatest opportunity for Chávez's opponents arises from one of
Chávez's biggest leadership blunders — his failure to groom a successor,
likely out of fear that he would be creating a rival.
Indeed, while Chávez has appointed a string of no fewer than seven vice
presidents, who took their brief turn serving as Venezuela's
constitutional second-in-line, each was cast off into relative obscurity.
Venezuela's current vice president, Elias Jaua, appointed by Chávez in
2010, is considered weak and a non-factor in Venezuelan politics. While
he could briefly become president in the event Chávez is unable to
serve, few believe he would be able to hold onto power. Infighting by
Chávez allies to fill a power vacuum in his absence could present an
opening for a democratic transition.
Events in Venezuela in 2012 are likely to spill over into other parts of
the region. As the main benefactor of Latin America's radical left,
Chávez's potential demise in the coming year would throw leftist
governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia into disarray, and would be a
crippling blow to the FARC. All rely on Venezuelan largesse, and any
interruption in the flow of Venezuelan oil, money and other resources
would have devastating effects. This should be cause for some guarded
optimism in the New Year.
Richard Brand, an attorney, is a former staff writer for The Miami
Herald who reported on Venezuela from 2002 to 2004.
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