By JOSé DE CóRDOBA
Documents from intelligence services of two countries suggest Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez's cancer has spread to his bones and is more
aggressive than his government has reported.
The reports, based on interviews with people who have had access to Mr.
Chávez's medical team, are likely to feed recent rumors that the man who
has led Venezuela since 1999 won't be healthy enough to stand for
re-election in October, potentially throwing the country's political
future in doubt.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez addressed a gathering in Caracas this
week, after formally kicking off his 2012 re-election campaign Sunday.
Mr. Chávez says he is now cancer-free after having a baseball-sized
tumor removed from his pelvic area in June and four rounds of
chemotherapy—though he has refused to discuss what kind of cancer he had.
On Sunday he again proclaimed his good health—and delivered an hour-long
speech that he said marked the beginning of the 2012 presidential campaign.
"Some people keep saying I'm dying, that's what they would like. But
check out how I practice my hook," said Mr. Chávez, weaving and bobbing
like a boxer, to the delight of a crowd of thousands of red-shirted
followers.
A Nov. 1 report from a European intelligence agency says medical tests
show a "clear and significant growth of cancerous cells in the patient's
marrow," according to a copy of the report viewed by The Wall Street
Journal.
Doctors treating Mr. Chávez privately concluded that "the spread of the
disease is now accelerating," the report said. Reports by another
intelligence agency drew the same conclusion.
The Venezuelan government denied the reports, and said only Mr. Chávez
is authorized to speak about his health.
It can be a fool's bet to predict the demise of leaders in such
secretive nations. U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte publicly
predicted in 2006 that Cuban dictator Fidel Castro had just months to
live. Mr. Castro is now retired, 85 years old, and writing an occasional
column for the Cuban Communist Party's newspaper.
If the cancer has spread to Mr. Chávez's bones, that would indicate his
cancer is incurable, said Dr. Alan Venook, head of the gastrointestinal
cancer program at the University of California at San Francisco.
But Mr. Chávez could live "a number of years" depending on what
treatment he receives, Dr. Venook said. "There are just too many missing
pieces to give a prognosis," he said.
Mr. Chávez's health is a worry from Caracas to China. His speech on
Sunday came days after former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Roger
Noriega wrote in a column that the Venezuelan is unlikely to survive
more than six months unless he changes his anti-cancer treatment.
Mr. Noriega said the treatment was calculated to keep him politically
active in the crucial pre-election season, in place of a more aggressive
treatment that might prolong the president's life expectancy. Mr.
Noriega urged policy makers in the U.S., which gets 900,000 barrels of
oil a day from Venezuela, to plan for the chaos that could ensue if Mr.
Chávez were to die and a power struggle break out.
Supporters of the charismatic leader worry his absence would lead to
infighting among his would-be successors, none of whom enjoy his
mesmerizing hold on the loyalty of Venezuela's millions of slum dwellers.
Colombia also worries about political upheaval next-door. In Cuba, the
survival of Mr. Chávez is crucial to the continuation of virtually free
Venezuelan oil shipments—an economic lifeline for the regime of
President Raúl Castro.
Moscow, which has sold Venezuela billions of dollars in jets, ships and
helicopter, and Beijing, which has lent the Chávez government $32
billion as a down payment on more than 400,000 barrels of oil a day from
Venezuela, are also watching.
The report from the European intelligence agency says Mr. Chávez's
medical situation stems from long-neglected prostate and colon cancers.
Dr. Venook said that between the two, a spreading of cancer to the bones
would usually be associated with prostate cancer rather than colon cancer.
Other doctors have speculated that he has sarcoma, a soft-tissue cancer.
A U.S. official says that he has seen intelligence reports suggesting
the Venezuelan leader may have as little as six months to live. But
another U.S. official said: "We just don't know."
One factor fueling rumors is the secrecy surrounding the patient. In
June, after Mr. Chávez disappeared from public view during a trip to
Cuba, the government tried to quell rumors about his health by saying he
had a pelvic abscess. But on June 30, Mr. Chávez admitted what most
people suspected: He had cancer.
In October, a leading Venezuelan surgeon told a Mexican newsmagazine
that the cancer was much more aggressive than had been openly admitted.
The doctor, Salvador Navarrete, said members of Mr. Chávez's family had
given him the information.
Mr. Chávez called Dr. Navarrete "a liar." Three pro-government doctors
held a news conference to say Mr. Chávez was in "excellent health."
Dr. Navarrete backtracked from his statements, and fled the country
after he said his clinic had received a visit from the state
intelligence agency.
—David Luhnow, Kejal Vyas and Ezequiel Minaya contributed to this article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204517204577046464037810838.html
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