Venezuela burns alone

Posted on Tuesday, 03.04.14

Venezuela burns alone
BY JACKSON DIEHL
THE WASHINGTON POST

There are plenty of reasons to worry about Venezuela. A country with the
world's largest oil reserves now also manages to beat the world in
inflation, violent crime and shortages of essential goods. The
government's response consists mostly of arrests of opposition
activists, expulsions of U.S. diplomats and wild propaganda about the
supposed threat of a fascist coup or U.S. invasion.

The most discouraging aspect of Venezuela's agony, however, is its
isolation. While European and American diplomats have flooded into
Ukraine and President Obama has spent hours on the phone with Vladimir
Putin, Venezuela's crisis has been largely ignored by the outside world.
No envoys visited Caracas in the past several weeks, even as street
battles between government and opposition forces raged. The only
would-be broker who has even talked about flying in is 89-year-old Jimmy
Carter, who said he might add it to his schedule in April.

The neglect is not because the country of some 26 million is
insignificant. In addition to being the fourth-largest supplier of U.S.
oil, Venezuela props up the economy of Cuba and borders the Caribbean as
well as Colombia. It is already a major transit point for drug
trafficking. Its collapse into chaos could destabilize an entire region
in the United States' back yard.

There is a clear role for outsiders to play. Venezuela is utterly
polarized between followers of Hugo Chávez and a mass opposition that,
driven by students, has begun barricading the streets of Caracas and
other cities. The two sides are no more able than are Ukraine's
combatants to strike an accord on their own.

Yet some kind of pact is desperately needed. Unless drastic measures are
taken to stabilize its economy, Venezuela could soon be unable to pay
for its food, most of which is imported. The next elections are in late
2015, so the ballot box will not provide a means of settling the conflict.

Twenty years ago, an ad hoc group of presidents or foreign ministers of
nearby countries could have been expected to launch a mediation effort,
much as the European Union did in Ukraine. A dozen years ago, the
secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS) spent
months painstakingly negotiating a pact between the Chávez government
and its opponents, though the regime subsequently failed to respect it.

That no such effort is under way now speaks volumes about how Latin
America changed in the Chávez era. The United States has lost almost all
leverage. Made into a propaganda whipping boy by the regime, it has
mostly responded by backing away.

Other neighbors of Venezuela fall into two camps. Countries such as
Colombia, Mexico and Peru, which opposed Chavismo, keep their distance,
leery of picking a fight with a regime known for its combativeness.

More sympathetic governments, led by Brazil, cite high principle in
refusing to intervene: "Brazil does not speak about the internal
situation of any country," President Dilma Rousseff declared recently.
Of course, that is not true. When the left-wing president of Honduras
was ousted by its supreme court in 2009, Brazil led the charge to have
Honduras expelled from the OAS. When Paraguay's parliament impeached its
populist president in 2012, Rousseff went on a diplomatic rampage,
forcing Paraguay out of the Mercosur trade bloc. The real reason Brazil
won't act in Venezuela is ideological. "For Brazil, it's very important
that Venezuela always be looked at from the point of view of advances …
in education and health for the people," Rousseff said. In other words,
intervention is called for only when it benefits the left.

That view is shared by the secretary general of the OAS, Chilean
socialist Jose Miguel Insulza. Five years ago, Insulza personally
boarded a Venezuelan plane carrying ousted Honduran President Manuel
Zelaya in a foolhardy (and failed) attempt to reinstall him. Now he
proudly says, in an op-ed in the Spanish newspaper El Pais, that "no
authority — not a government, nor an international organization — has
considered intervening in Venezuela."

Panama, the only country willing to openly challenge the Chavistas,
called last week for a special OAS ministerial meeting to consider the
situation. But Venezuela's ambassador managed to have the vote on the
initiative postponed, and with Brazil opposed it's not likely to go forward.

So will Venezuela be left to unravel on its own? U.S. officials who
believe outside mediation is essential are hoping that the first Latin
American pope will step up. Last week, Pope Francis delivered an
unusually long and heartfelt appeal for "sincere dialogue" in Venezuela.
Were mediation by the Vatican or the Venezuelan church proposed, both
sides might find it hard to reject.

In short, Venezuelans who hope the free fall of their country will be
broken better start praying.

Jackson Diehl is deputy editorial page editor for The Washington Post.

© 2014, The Washington Post

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