Venezuela’s troubled times: Maduro’s first year in power

Posted on Friday, 04.18.14

Venezuela's troubled times: Maduro's first year in power

KEY DATES IN MADURO'S FIRST YEAR IN POWER

2013

April 19 – Five days after winning a contested presidential election
with 50.61 percent of the vote, Maduro becomes president of Venezuela.

June 11 – Despite opposition protests, the National Electoral Council
confirms the election results.

Sept 19 – Maduro says the U.S. denied him the right to overfly Puerto
Rico, beginning a bilateral rift.

Sept 25 – Maduro skips his debut at the U.N. General Assembly in New
York, citing death threats.

Sept. 30 – Venezuela ejects three U.S. diplomats and accuses them of
trying to sabotage the electrical grid. The U.S. responds in kind.

Nov. 8 – Maduro orders stores to slash prices, sparking a run on goods.

Nov. 19 – The National Assembly gives Maduro the right to rule by decree.

Dec. 8 – In his first electoral test since taking office, Maduro's PSUV
party and its allies win 76 percent of mayoral seats.

2014

Jan 6 – Monica Spear, an actress and former Miss Venezuela, is murdered,
underscoring Venezuela's record crime rate.

Feb. 12 – Student protests that began in San Cristobal go national. A
march in Caracas leaves three dead.

Feb. 17 – Venezuela orders three U.S. consular officers expelled on
allegations they fomented student protests. The U.S. responds in kind.

Feb. 18 – Opposition leader Leopoldo López is detained for his role in
the Feb. 12 demonstration.

Mar 19 – Two opposition mayors are detained for their role in protests.

Mar 31 – The Supreme Court ratifies a decision to strip opposition
Deputy María Corina Machado of her seat.

April 11 – After protests leave more than 40 dead on both sides, the
government and a faction of the opposition begin "peace talks."

BY JIM WYSS
JWYSS@MIAMIHERALD.COM

BOGOTA -- Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro often says he never wanted
the country's top job. Instead, the 51-year-old former union organizer
and transportation worker says he is simply following the orders of the
late President Hugo Chávez, who asked him to carry on the Bolivarian
Revolution.

The past 12 months prove how tall El Comandante's order was.

Since taking office April 19, 2013, Maduro has faced a tanking economy,
soaring crime, food shortages, deadly protests and questions about the
contested election that brought him to power. His embattled
administration also says it is the victim of Middle Eastern terrorists,
Chinese mercenaries and shadowy conspiracies launched from the United
States, Panama and Colombia.

What is clear is that Maduro's tenure has been troubled from the start.
Chávez's death from an undisclosed form of cancer March 5, 2013,
triggered a snap election that pushed his hand-picked successor and
longtime foreign minister into an intense campaign.

Maduro won with just a 1.5 percent margin in a race that the opposition
contends was rigged. The ensuing protests left at least 11 dead and
drove speculation that Maduro — who never graduated from college and is
often derided as the bus driver he once was — didn't have the mettle to
hold the reins of Latin America's fifth-largest economy. And that was
all before he put on the presidential sash.

"Maduro never enjoyed a honeymoon period because his legitimacy and the
legitimacy of his victory have always been in question," said Edgar
Gutiérrez, a Caracas-based political consultant. Most leaders, even
those who win tight races, enjoy a post-victory bump in the polls that
gives them leeway to roll out reforms, he said.

Instead, Maduro has been on "precarious political ground" from day one,
Gutiérrez said.

But even as Maduro inherited Chávez's problems — including the
second-highest murder rate in the world after Honduras, and the region's
highest annual inflation rate at 57 percent — he has remained Chávez's
most loyal ally. He often works from the hillside crypt where his former
boss is buried, and he says he relies on El Comandante's guidance from
beyond the grave to navigate the nation's troubled waters.

His first months in office had all of Chávez's hallmarks: He doubled
down on the populist social policies, or "missions," that were Chávez's
trademark, and savaged his rivals as "coup mongers" and "fascists."

"Instead of trying to reconcile with the part of the country that didn't
vote for him to expand his political base, he started governing for the
25 to 30 percent that were his most ardent followers," said Carmen
Beatriz Fernández, a political analyst with DataStrategia in Caracas.
"It was rule by an extremist for extremists and that has led to national
polarization."

Maduro claims it is the opposition that is on the fringe. Since taking
office, his administration has denounced what it says are more than a
dozen assassination attempts and hundreds of acts of sabotage.

During the protests that have roiled the nation since February,
officials said they captured a Chinese "mercenary" and a "Middle Eastern
terrorist" who were working for the opposition and plotting mayhem.
Former U.S. diplomats have been accused of planning Maduro's murder. The
government rarely provides proof of the allegations.

Maduro also blames the "oligarchy" and business elite for "economic
warfare" that he says is driving inflation and resulting in shortages of
everything from flour and chicken to toilet paper even though Venezuela
boasts the world's largest oil reserves.

"In a single year, they used all their formulas for coups and sabotage
that they used on Commander Chávez for 14 years," Maduro said recently.
"But we're still here."

During his time in power, Chávez had the charisma and political savvy to
credibly pin the country's problems on his foes, said Agustín Blanco
Muñoz, a historian at Caracas' Central University who interviewed Chávez
on several occasions before his death. But Maduro simply doesn't have
the chops to play that role, he said.

"This is a Chávez government without the liveliness and clarity of
Chávez," Blanco said. "And the continuation of Chávez without Chávez
isn't producing the best results for the country."

But Maduro has confounded those who underestimate him. In the run-up to
a key municipal election last December, he essentially declared a
national fire sale, forcing retailers to slash prices and capping
company profits at 30 percent. The "fair prices" law spurred a shopping
frenzy as Venezuelans lunged for televisions and stereos at steep discounts.

When it was time to hit the polls a few weeks later, voters seemed
grateful. Despite predictions of a government rout, the ruling PSUV
party and its allies won 76 percent of the mayoral races.

The economic move "was like a sugar rush that helped Maduro win" the
race, said Gutiérrez, the political analyst. "But after the rush comes
the crash. And that's led us to where we are today."

The Venezuela of "today" has been mired in street demonstrations since
February that have left at least 41 dead on both sides of the political
divide and more than than 500 injured. The opposition says it is simply
exercising its right to peacefully protest the government's failing
policies. Maduro claims the demonstrations are a thinly veiled coup
attempt backed from abroad. He has ousted U.S. and Panamanian diplomats
in response.

The government has also seized on the protests to isolate some of its
most strident critics. Over the past two months, the administration has
jailed Leopoldo López, head of the Voluntad Popular party, and two
opposition mayors. The government also stripped opposition Deputy María
Corina Machado of her seat.

That has left more-moderate members of the opposition in "peace talks"
with the administration, beginning last week. The negotiators have vowed
to free their jailed and exiled comrades, but it is not clear that the
government will give ground.

Blanco, the historian, says Chávez, and now Maduro, have been effective
in dividing and weakening the opposition.

"Yes, there are problems, but this administration will continue in power
because, fundamentally, there's not an opposition that can defeat them,"
he said.

"Maduro has military support, the power of petroleum and the support of
the 'social army,' " Blanco said, referring to the millions who benefit
from government programs like free housing, healthcare and education.
"And, of course, he has Cuba's political support — and advisors there
have a proven track record of being able to hold onto power during the
worst of times."

Others are not convinced that Maduro is invulnerable.

"The main variable affecting Maduro's longevity will be the government's
ability to improve the economy, since the catalyst for any future
transition will not be the opposition but rather discontent spilling
over into chavismo's base," Risa Grais-Targow, with the New York-based
analytical firm Eurasia Group, wrote in a letter to clients.

Although Maduro says new economic reforms are coming as soon as next
week, it is unclear how effective they will be at squelching inflation
and reviving productivity. "As a result, the economic outlook will
likely remain challenging, which implies that the potential for
discontent to rise will remain high," Grais-Targow wrote.

Some in the opposition believe they can stop Maduro's ascent during the
2015 legislative elections or, perhaps, during a 2016 recall attempt.

But Maduro has proved his critics wrong in the past.

"This year has been a powerful demonstration that [the opposition] can't
defeat us through protests, violence, elections or an economic war,"
Maduro recently told a crowd. "They will not come back."

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/18/4065861/venezuelas-troubled-times-maduros.html