Beware of post-election coup in Venezuela

Andres Oppenheimer: Beware of post-election coup in Venezuela

Venezuela's legislative elections are the most undemocratic in recent
history
Pre-election polls showed the opposition would win by a landslide
President Nicolás Maduro may strip an opposition-run Congress of its powers
BY ANDRÉS OPPENHEIMER
aoppenheimer@miamiherald.com

Judging from Venezuela's leftist regime's past behavior, its reaction to
a likely defeat in Sunday's crucial legislative elections may be to
stage a slow-motion post-election coup once international attention
shifts away from the country in coming weeks.

Except that this time, President Nicolas Maduro may not get away with it
as easily as in the past. With a collapsing economy, the world's highest
inflation rate, and a much less friendly international environment,
these elections could mark the beginning of the end of one of the most
corrupt and inept governments in the region.

Public opinion polls by Datanalisis, Venebarometro and other polling
firms that in the past predicted victories by late President Hugo Chávez
and Maduro, his successor, agreed that the opposition MUD coalition was
about 30 percentage points ahead of the government in the last
pre-election polls.

Despite the fact that this was the most anti-democratic election process
in South America's recent history — in addition to the arbitrary
imprisonment of leading opposition figures and widespread press
controls, the regime's election rules will allow sparsely populated
pro-government states to elect more legislators than huge states with
opposition majorities — the opposition was leading in public opinion
polls even in heavily "Chavista" states.

If the Maduro regime ends up accepting a defeat in the polls, it
wouldn't be the first time that it does so, but only to rewrite the laws
shortly thereafter and strip the opposition of its democratically won
political gains.

Consider what happened in 2008, when opposition leader Antonio Ledezma
won the elections for mayor of Caracas, the capital. It was the most
important job after the president's, and it was hailed as a huge victory
for the opposition.

But shortly thereafter, the Chávez-controlled National Assembly
announced the creation of a new "Capital District" to run the city. It
appointed a Chávez loyalist to head the new city government, and
transferred most of the Caracas' mayoral office's budget to the newly
created city government.

Ledezma went on a hunger strike and drew some international attention,
but most of the region's governments looked the other way. Soon, the
world forgot about the whole issue.

The Maduro regime may try to do something similar if the opposition wins
a majority in the National Assembly: it may create a new legislative
institution to supersede or replace the current congress. There is
already a law in place that would allow Maduro to try to do that,
Venezuelan opposition sources tell me.

In 2010, Chávez passed what is known as the "People's Power law," which
calls for creation of a Cuban-style election system. Under the law,
Venezuela would create 18,000 "communes" to "exercise direct power."

At the time, nobody paid much attention, mainly because it sounded too
far-fetched. But the law is in place, and could be used by Maduro to
circumvent the National Assembly with a new government-controlled
legislative body.

My opinion: Maduro may accept a defeat — like Chávez did after a 2007
referendum — and wait a few weeks before striking back.

He may first try to buy off opposition legislators or create bogus
charges to expel others in order to retain control of the National
Assembly. And if that fails, he may resort to the "People's Power law"
and create a new "People's National Assembly."

But this time, the odds are against him: his popularity at home has
plummeted, and he has no more petro-dollars to buy the support of
foreign governments.

Unlike in past elections, Organization of American States secretary
general Luis Almagro, Argentina's President-elect Mauricio Macri,
Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and British Prime Minister David
Cameron, among others, are already denouncing Venezuela's lack of
compliance with regional treaties calling for adherence to democratic
principles.

Now, the key will be pressing Brazil — in the midst of a major political
and economic crisis — and other countries in the region not to condone a
slow-motion post-election coup in Venezuela, as they did in the past.
It's time for Latin America's diplomatic community to stop behaving like
a mutual protection society for repressive regimes.

Watch "Oppenheimer Presenta" Sundays at 9 p.m. on CNN en Español;
Twitter: @oppenheimera

Source: Andres Oppenheimer: Beware of post-election coup in Venezuela |
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