Victory may not boost Chávez’s regional clout

Posted on Wednesday, 10.10.12
In My Opinion

Victory may not boost Chávez's regional clout
By Andres Oppenheimer
aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com

The conventional wisdom is that President Hugo Chávez's victory in
Venezuela's elections will increase his influence in Latin America,
and that it may encourage other presidents to seek indefinite
reelections. But there are good reasons to think that Chávez's
political momentum will be short lived, and geographically limited.

After Chávez's Sunday victory, which will allow him to rule until
2019, most of his supporters and critics seem to agree that his
victory will re-energize his followers throughout Latin America.

In a telephone interview from Caracas, Venezuela's vice minister of
foreign relations Jorge Valero told me that Chávez's victory will mark
a turning point in Latin America's current history.

"This election will have a much more profound impact on the continent
than what the Bolivarian Revolution has already had," Valero told me.
"This is a revolution, and this is a victory that may even impact
other continents, such as Europe."

Chávez's victory will "give a new impulse" to several Latin American
diplomatic groups that were born since the Venezuelan president took
office 14 years ago, such as the Venezuela-led ALBA group that is also
made up of leftist countries, such as Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua;
Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the recently created
Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), Valero said.

The start of Chávez's third term in 2013 will coincide with Cuba
taking over the rotating presidency of UNASUR, which is now held by
Chile. That will be only one of many factors that will help bolster
Venezuela's diplomatic influence, he said.

Will the fact that a significant 45 percent of Venezuelans voted for
the opposition — despite an uneven race in which Chávez virtually
controlled television time and used massive state resources to buy
votes — lead the president to reach out to the opposition, or will he
radicalize his revolution, I asked Valero.

"The message from the Venezuelan people is that we need to move
forward in the construction of an egalitarian society," Valero said.

Elsewhere in Latin America, the outcome of Venezuela's elections is
likely to embolden other presidents — such as Argentina's president
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner — to change their constitutions and
seek indefinite reelections, as well as to step up efforts to clamp
down on critical media, the Spanish daily El Pais said Monday. Many
leading Latin American analysts voiced similar views in recent days.

My opinion: Chávez will undoubtedly get a political boost from his
election victory at home and abroad, but his momentum will not compare
to the clout he had a few years ago.

First, one of the most remarkable things of Venezuela's Sunday
election is that opposition leader Henrique Capriles won about 45
percent of the vote — much more than any predecessor — although Chávez
had a "captive vote" of millions of public employees and recipients of
government subsidies, as well as a near total control of television
time.

Despite 14 years of near absolute powers, Chávez is much weaker today
than he was in the 2006 presidential elections, when the opposition
got only 36 percent of the vote.

Second, all politics is local, and Chávez's victory will not
automatically translate into a growing club of presidents-for-life. In
a few months, Chávez's victory will be a distant memory in most
countries.

Third, and most important, Chávez's influence at home and abroad is
directly proportional to world oil prices, and there are no signs that
oil prices will soar anytime soon.

When Chávez took office, oil was at $9 a barrel. When oil prices
jumped to nearly $150 a barrel in 2008, Chávez reached his peak,
traveling around the world giving away petro-dollars to boost his
narcissist-Leninist model, and seeking a seat at the United Nations
Security Council.

Now, with oil prices back to about $100 a barrel, Chávez will have to
spend much of his time taking care of domestic problems, such as
fighting pressures to carry out a massive devaluation of the currency
after the Dec. 16 state elections, controlling runaway inflation,
lowering record crime rates, and ending electricity shortages that are
politically embarrassing in one of the world's top oil exporters.

Venezuela's difficult economic situation, alongside a gradually
growing opposition, and Chávez's own uncertain health will keep Chávez
from significantly stepping up his international activism. Barring an
unexpected rise of oil prices, he will be too busy trying to keep the
lights on at home.

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