The End of Chávez?

The End of Chávez?
October 5, 2012
Peter Brookes

While Americans focus on the increasingly heated presidential race here
at home, they would be wise to keep an eye on another presidential
election of consequence for the United States—the one in Venezuela.

This Sunday, millions of Venezuelans will go to the polls in, perhaps,
the most fateful presidential election in the country's recent
history—an election that current strongman President Hugo Chávez may
actually lose.

Now, you would be wise not to bet the family farm on a Chávez defeat.
But political observers believe that the challenger, Henrique Capriles
(leader of the united opposition), might be able to topple Caracas's
caudillo, assuming a level electoral playing field.

Besides dissatisfaction with the rule of the Chavistas, one of the other
reasons the comandante might feel the agony of defeat is his health.
Chávez is battling cancer, which has hampered his usually colorful,
aggressive campaigning.

But there is a lot more at stake for Washington than just a democratic
electoral process. Chávez and his crowd have been a threat to peace,
stability and U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere for years now.

To start, a loss for Chávez could mean a massive defeat for his
socialist, authoritarian Bolivarian revolution in a country that
previously had a strong democratic tradition and was once a friend of
the United States.

His ouster could also end Chávez's role as leader of the Latin American
Left. Plus, it would probably mean a weakening, and perhaps dissolution,
of the anti-U.S. league that Chávez formed—and bankrolls—in places like
Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia and Cuba.

Not only has Chávez kept the Castro brothers in Cuba afloat with
billions of dollars in annual aid (largely in the form of Venezuelan oil
swaps for Cuban technical assistance), he also has assisted the
(re)ascendancy of the likes of Nicaragua's Sandinista-retread president,
Daniel Ortega.

A new regime in Caracas also could lead to the pulling in of the welcome
mat for Tehran in Latin America, where Venezuela is aiding and abetting
Iran in circumventing punitive international economic sanctions due to
its nuclear-weapons program.

It gets worse.

A 2010 Pentagon report to Congress on the Iranian military notes [3]
that: "IRGC-QF [Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Forces]
maintains operational capabilities around the world. . . . Recent years
have witnessed an increased presence in Latin America, particularly
Venezuela."

Any doubts about this assessment were quickly dashed with the news in
the fall of 2011 that the elite Iranian military Qods Force, in cahoots
with Mexican drug cartels, was plotting to assassinate the Saudi
ambassador to the United States at a restaurant in Washington, DC.

More troubling down the road is concern about Venezuela's ties with
Iran. If Tehran's nuclear know-how or burgeoning ballistic-missile
capability find their way to Caracas, there is the potential for a
twenty-first-century Cuban Missile Crisis.

Venezuela also is believed to have a relationship with Lebanon's
Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy and terrorist ally. Hezbollah has used the
region to raise money and run weapons. Both Iran and Hezbollah have been
implicated in the Israeli embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center
(1994) bombings in Buenos Aires.

It is certainly possible that in the event of U.S. or Israeli military
action against Iran, Venezuela could be used as a launching pad for
terror or other attacks against the United States or American interests
in the region.

Some, including members of Congress, have called for Venezuela to be
added to the U.S. State Department's State Sponsors of Terrorism list,
along with the likes of Iran and Syria, due to revelations about its
support for the Colombian narco-terror group FARC.

In an effort to destabilize neighboring Colombia, and in hopes of
reestablishing Gran Colombia as accomplished by his hero, the "great
liberator" of Latin America Simon Bolivar, Chávez has provided FARC with
funding, weapons and safe haven. But the prospects for a positive
outcome of peace talks between FARC and Bogotá will improve without
Chávez's backing.

Not surprisingly, Venezuela has become a significant transit country for
drug trafficking. Narcotraficantes, including FARC, use Venezuela to
export cocaine to the United States, Europe, Africa and beyond,
according to the U.S. government.

While not a direct military threat to the United States yet, Venezuela
has been arming itself to the teeth with Russian weaponry, including
fighters, helicopters and tanks. The country has spent some $5 billion
or more in the absence of a threat to its security. (Of course, Chávez
claims Venezuela needs these weapons to prevent the United States from
invading the country.)

Last, but not least, we should not forget Chávez's threats to cut off
oil exports to the United States. Perhaps it's bluster, but this threat
is not insignificant, considering we get some 10 percent of our oil from
Venezuela, according to energy experts.

Unfortunately, the Obama administration's policy toward Chávez has been
mostly one of benign neglect, which, while toning down the normally
cutting rhetoric of the comandante, has done little to tame his
anti-American tendencies.

The end of Chavismo would strike a blow for freedom for the Venezuelan
people and for this hemisphere, not to mention serve as a strike against
the growing presence and influence of the likes of Iran—and other bad
actors in the region.

While the outcome of the October 7 elections is generally in the hands
of the Venezuelan people, it would be a shame to think we did not do all
we could to send Chávez into a well-deserved political retirement.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy
assistant secretary of defense.

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-end-ch%C3%A1vez-7560