Sympathy for Chavez a factor in Venezuela politics

Posted on Monday, 12.17.12

Sympathy for Chavez a factor in Venezuela politics
By IAN JAMES and FABIOLA SANCHEZ
Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Smarting after a bruising loss in state elections,
Venezuela's opposition will now be forced to reassess its strategy and
rebuild quickly to prepare for presidential elections that many expect
could be called to replace ailing President Hugo Chavez.

Chavez's bleak outlook after his fourth cancer-related surgery in Cuba
last week appears to have galvanized his supporters, making Vice
President Nicolas Maduro a tough candidate to beat in new elections,
which under the constitution would be called within 30 days if the
president dies, is incapacitated or steps down.

"It is a 30-day period that is going to be infused with all of the
heightened emotion around Chavez's departure," said Cynthia Arnson, an
analyst at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in
Washington. "The sympathy vote and the fervor of the Chavista base to
come out and vote for the continuation of the revolution will be very high."

Maduro would also get a boost from a socialist party that swept 20 of 23
state elections in Sunday's gubernatorial elections. One of the three
anti-Chavez candidates who held off the onslaught was Henrique Capriles,
who lost to Chavez in October's presidential vote but is now widely
considered the opposition's best hope against Maduro.

Capriles played down that possibility when asked if he would run for
president again.

"It isn't the time to be making those calculations," Capriles told
reporters Sunday night. "There will be time."

He added that it was Chavez's government that raised the possible
scenario of new elections, and he questioned the idea of a hand-picked
successor inheriting power.

"Leaders aren't decreed. They're built," said Capriles, who seemed in
campaign mode wearing a baseball cap and track suit emblazoned with the
yellow, blue and red of the Venezuelan flag.

On a national level, Chavez's allies won 4.7 million votes in the state
elections, much less than the 8.1 million who voted for Chavez in
October but still more than 970,000 votes ahead of the opposition.

The 53 percent voter turnout on Sunday was considerably lower than the
more than 80 percent who cast ballots in October's presidential vote,
and the high abstention affected both camps.

The vote was the first in Chavez's nearly 14-year-old presidency in
which he has been unable to actively campaign. He hasn't spoken publicly
since Tuesday's cancer surgery, and he remained out of sight while
recovering in Cuba, accompanied by his four children and son-in-law.

Sunday's strong showing will likely give the president's confidants a
freer hand to deepen his socialist policies, including a drive to
fortify grass-roots citizen councils that are directly funded by the
central government.

Arnson said she expects that Chavez's blessing of Maduro, amid an
outpouring of emotion over the president's departure, would be a
powerful ingredient for an election campaign.

The 50-year-old Maduro, a burly former bus driver, has shown unflagging
loyalty and become a leading spokesman for the leftist leader while
serving as foreign minister during the past six years. Chavez appointed
Maduro vice president after winning re-election in October.

Maduro stood in for Chavez on Monday presiding over an annual ceremony
marking the anniversary of independence hero Simon Bolivar's death.
Troops stood at attention outside the National Pantheon while an
orchestra and choir performed, led by star conductor Gustavo Dudamel.
State television showed images of Bolivar's flag-draped coffin.

Afterward, Maduro called the elections an important victory but also
noted that one government candidate, in Bolivar state, nearly lost due
to a vote split by a second pro-Chavez contender. He said there had been
similar problems in a few states.

"What would have happened if they had lost in those states?" Maduro told
reporters. "We should reflect, and in those states where there were
parallel candidacies we need to have a process of reunification. ...
We're going to reunify all the patriotic, revolutionary forces."

"For the love of the nation, for the love of Chavez, we're going to
unite our forces for the battles to come," Maduro said, without elaborating.

The government has spent heavily on social programs and new public
housing projects around the country, with the spending boosting Chavez's
image ahead of his re-election win in October. In the coming months,
however, the government is expected to face new constraints on spending
with the country's currency having slipped on the black market and its
debt growing.

"With all its economic difficulties, the government will be hard-pressed
to create new programs in the coming months. But it doesn't really need
to," Arnson said. "Chavez's incapacity or death will trigger a
tremendous outpouring of emotion, some of which is directly rooted in
the social benefits that people have already received."

She and other analysts predict that Maduro would face challenges in
trying to maintain unity within Chavez's party, and that he would
constantly need to negotiate with different factions.

"The support for Chavez's party was broad yesterday. But this doesn't
tell us how deep it is," said Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington
Office on Latin America think tank. "Should Chavez depart the scene, no
other leader has the same charisma and ability to keep the pro-Chavez
coalition together for very long. His successor (Maduro) will have to
deal with popular anger at crime, shortages, a likely devaluation,
neglected infrastructure, and other looming problems."

The opposition faces its own tough questions after losing five of its
governorships, including the country's most populous state, Zulia, an
important oil production center.

Chavez is due to be sworn in for another term on Jan. 10. But if his
condition forces him to step down before then, the president of the
National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, would take over temporarily until
elections are held.

Opposition coalition leader Ramon Guillermo Aveledo said in an interview
on the Venezuelan TV channel Globovision that the defeats were "a very
strong blow" and will prompt political soul-searching.

The opposition continues to be stymied by "the lack of a clear
programmatic alternative to Chavez," said Miguel Tinker Salas, a Latin
American studies professor at Pomona College in Claremont, California.
He pointed out that Capriles tried to campaign against Chavez in the
presidential vote by espousing more moderate policies akin to those of
former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, including
preserving Chavez era social programs for the poor, and he still lost.

"In this election, except for their dislike of Chavez, most candidates
did not offer an alternative," he said.

Associated Press writers Vivian Sequera in Caracas and Frank Bajak in
Lima, Peru, contributed to this report.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/17/v-fullstory/3146158/sympathy-for-chavez-a-factor-in.html