Some Venezuelans see 'Chavismo' struggles brewing

Posted on Friday, 12.14.12

Some Venezuelans see 'Chavismo' struggles brewing
By IAN JAMES
Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Hugo Chavez's most influential allies are
projecting an image of unity while the president recovers from cancer
surgery in Cuba, standing side-by-side and pledging to uphold his
socialist movement no matter what happens.

But with Chavez's outlook increasingly darkening, some Venezuelans
believe power struggles are brewing between ambitious lieutenants long
in the president's shadow.

One-man rule has been the glue holding together Chavez's movement, and
he hadn't groomed any clear successor until he surprised Venezuelans
with the announcement last weekend that if cancer forced him from office
he wanted his vice president, Nicolas Maduro, to take over.

The president's diverse "Chavismo" movement includes groups from radical
leftists to moderates, and long-hidden divisions could flare, at least
behind-the-scenes, if Chavez is no longer in charge.

"In politics, everything is possible," said Gustavo Chourio, a
bookseller in downtown Caracas, adding that he expects conflict between
Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello.

Maduro leads a civilian-political wing that is considered to be closely
aligned with Cuba's communist government. Cabello, a former military
officer who is more moderate, is thought to have strong ties to the
military - a relationship he highlighted when he spoke at a Mass for
Chavez held at Venezuela's largest military base.

"Maduro doesn't have influence with those in the military. Diosdado has
the influence," Chourio said.

Throughout the nearly 14 years Chavez has been president, his allies
have always deferred to and parroted him.

Chourio said he believes Chavismo has grown so strong it will persist
without Chavez. But he predicts Maduro and Cabello will have a reckoning
and may end up cutting deals.

"Those two will have to work it out to guarantee the country's
stability," said Chourio, a longtime Chavez supporter.

Analysts agree that political battles are likely, if not inevitable.

"It is almost certain that an intense power struggle is already under
way within Chavismo," said Michael Shifter, president of the
Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

Shifter said key figures in the president's camp, including Maduro and
Cabello, have long had to suppress personal ambition as Chavez
monopolized decision-making.

"With Chavez no longer on the scene, and the power vacuum exposed, the
situation becomes extremely unpredictable," Shifter said. "The fact that
Maduro is Chavez's designated successor gives him the upper hand for the
time being, but that is unlikely to last long. The others vying for
power are wily and ruthless. From the outset, the Chavez regime has been
about power - including lots of money - and now all of that is up for
grabs."

Maduro and Cabello, for their part, showed a united front this week by
appearing together at events along with other Cabinet ministers and
military commanders. Speaking alongside Cabello and Oil Minister Rafael
Ramirez on Wednesday, Maduro said: "We're more united than ever."

The 58-year-old Chavez underwent his fourth cancer-related operation
Tuesday after announcing that tests had found the illness had come back
despite previous operations, chemotherapy and radiation treatments. The
government said Thursday that Chavez suffered complications in surgery
but that he was recovering favorably.

If Chavez were to die or be unable to continue in office, the
constitution says new elections should be held within 30 days. If that
happened before Chavez's Jan. 10 swearing-in, the president of the
National Assembly would take over temporarily until elections were held.

Before his surgery, Chavez acknowledged such a scenario. He said on
television Saturday night, with Maduro and Cabello seated beside him,
that if he was unable to continue as president, Maduro should be elected
to take his place and lead the socialist movement.

That appearance by Chavez, during a quick trip home after 10 days of
treatment in Havana, was an indication that jostling for power had
already begun, said Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on
Latin America.

"If there were consensus, Chavez would not have found it necessary to
fly home from Havana last weekend, in the middle of delicate medical
treatments, to publicly name a successor," Isacson said.

In the short-term, he said, Chavez's allies know it's in their best
interest to fall in behind Maduro if a new election is called, and the
president's endorsement could give Maduro enough clout to lead for
months or years.

"Instability could come later, if President Chavez dies and the new
leader of Chavismo lacks his charisma and ability to hold the coalition
together," Isacson said. "At that point, Chavismo would be likely to
splinter."

Maduro, a one-time bus driver and former foreign minister, has stepped
into the void during Chavez's absence. On Thursday night, his voice was
hoarse as he spoke at a political rally, pledging not to give in to the
country's "bourgeoisie."

"I swear to you ... we will never betray the Venezuelan people!" he
said, adding: "Together we're going to defend the peace, stability and
the future of our children, with our own lives if necessary!"

But Maduro will find it difficult to control the various factions in
Chavez's socialist party, said Vicente Torrijos, a political analyst at
El Rosario University in Bogota, Colombia. "Maduro doesn't have that
charisma, nor the ability, much less the political capital," he said.

Torrijos expects the fervor inspired by Chavez to continue, but he
predicts differences among the president's followers will eventually
"disrupt the revolution." The military is likely to "influence political
decisions more and more," he said.

---

Associated Press writers Christopher Toothaker in Caracas and Cesar
Garcia in Bogota, Colombia, contributed to this report.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/14/v-fullstory/3141652/some-venezuelans-see-chavismo.html