What it would take to defeat Maduro in Venezuela

What it would take to defeat Maduro in Venezuela
BY MAC MARGOLIS
02/26/2015 11:28 AM 02/26/2015 11:48 AM

For anyone tracking the slow-motion crackup of the economy, the rule of
law and all the other vital signs of democratic life in Venezuela,
here's a riddle.

How is it that the vast majority of citizens in Latin America's poorest
rich nation, with some of the world's largest reserves of oil and gas,
are fed up with life under the Bolivarian Republic and yet still have
not turned on the Palacio Miraflores, never mind thrown in with the
opposition?

Two recent surveys, by Datanalisis and Hinterlaces, show that seven to
eight of every 10 Venezuelans believe that President Nicolás Maduro is
doing a lousy job, and more than 85 percent say the country is in bad
shape. Maduro's personal approval rating has fallen to just 22 percent.

That ought to be dynamite fishing for Maduro's foes as they head to
legislative elections later this year. Instead, Venezuela's opposition
is fractured and floundering.

A poll in January found that although some 40 percent of Venezuelans
sympathized with the opposition message, only 19 percent backed the
flagship opposition bloc, the United Democratic Roundtable. "No
discourse, no message and no proposals," is how pollster Oscar Schemel,
president of Hinterlaces, described the anti-Chavista predicament in a
televised interview.

Official election rigging hasn't helped. In 2010, the opposition
candidates won 52 percent of the vote, but thanks to gerrymandering
ended up with just 41 percent of legislative seats. Then there's the
political guillotine. The latest victim was Caracas mayor Antonio
Ledezma, a fiery critic of the Bolivarian regime, arrested by Maduro's
intelligence police on Feb. 19, on sedition charges.

Carlos Ocariz, director of Venezuela's mayors' association, told
reporters on Feb. 22 that 33 of 77 opposition mayors in Venezuela
currently faced legal action brought by the Chavista-friendly courts.
Maduro has reportedly jailed more political opponents this year than
Hugo Chávez did in the previous 14 years combined.

And yet the opposition's bigger problem may be existential. Foes of the
Bolivarian regime have eloquently decried human rights violations, media
censorship and the blackout in civil rights that has struck a chord with
groups such as Human Rights Watch, and drawn slaps from global
heavyweights, such as former U.S. president Bill Clinton and former
Spanish prime minister José María Aznar.

The message is less resonant among Venezuelans, eight in 10 of whom
believe crime and economic disarray trump politics. For all its stirring
jeremiads, the opposition has failed to offer a credible alternative.
That may be because deep down they share some of Chavismo's basic illusions.

"Venezuela is not a socialist state," New York University historian
Alejandro Velasco told me. "It's a Petrostate, which means that the
conversation is not over how to make a stronger democracy but all about
distribution of rents and who controls the national wealth," he said.
"That makes dictatorship and democracy two sides of the same coin."

Last year, Maduro first floated a proposal to raise Venezuela's
pennies-per-tank gasoline prices. Instead of saying it's about time he
stopped wrecking the economy, anti-Chavistas howled about gouging
workers' wallets. "As long as we give away our oil to Cuba it's
unacceptable that Venezuelans pay more. Unacceptable," tweeted
opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

Instead of swapping out Chavismo's bloated and profligate social
programs for more cost-effective ways to reach the neediest, Miranda
state Governor Henrique Capriles called for writing the "misiones" into
the Constitution, as if to beat the Bolivarians at their own game.

There's hardly an economist in the Andes who'll defend Venezuela's
grossly overvalued currency, which distorts prices and stokes the black
market. But when the government recently introduced a new rate of 170
bolivares to the dollar — essentially, a 69 percent devaluation —
Capriles called it a conspiracy. "The only coup today was the one the
government staged against the bolivar," Capriles tweeted.

With the Maduro regime bleeding, never has the Bolivarian brand looked
so vulnerable. If legislative elections go forward this year — the
government has yet to set a date — Venezuela's opposition could
conceivably overcome the government's formidable incumbent advantages
and take a majority in parliament. Yet even so, the bigger problem is
not winning, but what to do once in power.

MAC MARGOLIS IS A BLOOMBERG VIEW CONTRIBUTOR BASED IN RIO DE JANEIRO.

Source: What it would take to defeat Maduro in Venezuela | Miami Herald
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