The Clock Is Ticking On Venezuela

The Clock Is Ticking On Venezuela
Paul Coyer , CONTRIBUTOR
I cover foreign policy with a focus on Eurasia.

Venezuela is fast on its way to becoming the next Cuba, if the Socialist
Party of Venezuela gets its way and succeeds in rewriting the
constitution to enshrine its authoritarian rule permanently – and that
should be worrisome for those of us that share the Western hemisphere
with Caracas. Due to its vast natural resources and wealth, strategic
importance, and established relationships with hostile,
extra-hemispheric actors, Venezuela has the potential to be a far
greater problem than Cuba has been.

The national security implications of continued Chavista rule are as big
a cause for concern as is the worsening political, economic and
humanitarian crisis. Venezuela has increasingly become a source of
instability due to the vast and institutionalized corruption and
narco-trafficking, in which government officials and the military are
key parts. It has also been a focal point in the region for the presence
of extra-hemispheric powers, prominently including Iran and Hezbollah,
other jihadi groups (among other ways, this enabling has taken place
through the sale of Venezuelan passports to Islamic militants), Russia,
and China, all of whom, to varying degrees, have sought to use their
presence to undermine American interests. A loss of power by the
Chavistas in Caracas would threaten a key base in Latin America for all
of these actors, and all have supported the regime in varying ways.

The government has used shady methods to frustrate every attempt by the
National Assembly to limit Maduro's power, force a recall election, or
even hold regularly scheduled regional elections. The concern of the
ruling Chavista regime goes beyond just the potential to lose political
power. Due to the widespread nature of corruption and narco-trafficking,
should the government lose power government officials could in all
likelihood end up in prison, or even on a plane to the United States to
face narco-trafficking charges. The Venezuelan military has propped up
the Chavista regime due to it having been made a stakeholder by Hugo
Chavez in the government's corruption and narco-trafficking for the
express purpose of ensuring its continued loyalty. The limited number of
senior military officers are all very much a part of this morass and the
whole of the officer corps is watched carefully for any signs of
disloyalty. In recent months the military's role in the country has been
expanded – it has now been placed in charge of imports of food and basic
consumer goods, given the right to set up mining and oil companies, etc.
It is therefore extremely unlikely that a military leader will arise who
will side with the people against the government.

The government attempted to neutralize the constitutional power of the
National Assembly this past spring when it had the Supreme Court,
stacked as it is with Chavistas, strip the National Assembly of its
legislative powers. A short time later the government was forced to
backtrack due to the huge outcry on the part of the Venezuelan people
and intense international criticism. This time, the government is
seeking to neutralize the National Assembly permanently, through a
Constituent Assembly, elections for which are to take place on July 30.
The goal of the Constituent Assembly is to create new governing
institutions, to be known as communal counsels, members of which can be
handpicked by the government and the counsels controlled directly by the
Venezuelan Socialist Party, doing away with state and local governments,
and, of course, the National Assembly – the only political institution
left in the country that can reasonably claim to have the support of the
vast majority of the Venezuelan people and of civil society. The result
will be the complete Cubanization of Venezuela. The Constituent Assembly
would have almost unlimited power while it pursues the constitutional
revision process. Maduro claims it is necessary to restore "peace and
prosperity" - ignoring the fact that the problem with Venezuela is not
its existing constitution, but the Chavistas themselves.

The government has a constitutional responsibility, both the opposition
and many legal experts argue, to allow the people of Venezuela to decide
whether they want a new constitution before creating a constitutional
assembly and rewriting the existing one. Hugo Chavez called a referendum
both times that he attempted to rewrite the constitution – his
embarrassing loss in 2007 referendum that sought a major rewrite has
doubtless contributed to Maduro's refusal to hold one in this case. A
poll by Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis showed that 85% of those
surveyed opposed rewriting the present constitution. A similar number
said that Maduro should have called for a referendum before attempting
to call a constituent assembly.

The democratic opposition, therefore, calling on its constitutional
powers to call a national referendum on issues of pressing national
importance, has called for a national plebiscite (consulta popular), to
take place Sunday, July 16, two weeks ahead of the government's vote, to
illustrate the depth of public opposition to the government's attempt to
make permanent its authoritarian rule, and the depth of public support
for the National Assembly's efforts to restore the rule of law and
observance of the constitution. Aware that the government is likely to
do all that it can in order to undermine the plebiscite, including the
use of violence, the opposition has invited international observers.
When Julio Borges, the President of the National Assembly, announced the
plebiscite on July 3, he was flanked by other opposition leaders a well
as key actors from civil society - university presidents, leaders of
various student movements, church leaders, etc., illustrating the
breadth of support for the plebiscite.

On July 5, Venezuela's Independence Day, the National Assembly met to
vote formally on holding the July 16 referendum. In order to forestall
that vote, government-backed "colectivos" invaded the building and
assaulted Assembly members and their staff with pipes, rocks, firearms
and home made mortars, over the course of several hours, while the
government guards who are supposed to protect the institution stood idly
by. Not to be dissuaded, the opposition held the vote anyway, after the
physical threat subsided.

Source: The Clock Is Ticking On Venezuela -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulcoyer/2017/07/16/the-clock-is-ticking-on-venezuela/#e5897be65c27