Adiós to Venezuelan democracy

Adiós to Venezuelan democracy
Nicolás Maduro prepares a "caricature of a caricature" of Cuba
Print edition | The Americas
Jun 29th 2017

Constitutions, like diamonds, are supposed to last. But that is not the
view of Nicolás Maduro, a former bus driver chosen by a dying Chávez to
replace him as president in 2013. He has ordered a new constituent
assembly, to be chosen on July 30th. Everything about the process is
different from 1999. In violation of Chávez's constitution, it has been
called by presidential decree rather than by referendum.

Mr Maduro says its purpose is to defeat the opposition's "fascism". Yet
it will be chosen under a system that might have been devised by
Mussolini. Each of the 340 municipalities will elect one assembly
member, regardless of size (only state capitals will get two), meaning
the opposition-supporting cities are under-represented. A further 181
members will be chosen from communal and occupational groups controlled
by the regime.

Mr Maduro wants the assembly because he can no longer stay in power
democratically. Low oil prices and mismanagement have exacted a heavy
toll. Food and medicines are scarce; diseases long curbed, such as
diphtheria and malaria, are killing once more. The opposition won a big
majority in a legislative election in 2015. Since then Mr Maduro has
ruled by decree and through the puppet supreme court. In almost daily
opposition protests since April, 75 people have been killed, many shot
by the National Guard or pro-regime armed gangs.

Mr Maduro's lurch to dictatorship has opened cracks in his political
base. Luisa Ortega, the attorney-general and long a chavista, has become
an outspoken critic. The constituent assembly will "complete the
definitive dismantling of democracy", she told a Peruvian newspaper this
week. Its apparent purpose is to turn Venezuela into a dictatorship
along Cuban lines. Already Mr Maduro has instituted a Cuban-style
rationing system with food parcels delivered by the armed forces. The
assembly, officials say, will assume sovereign power—and sack Ms Ortega.
A last opportunity to apply diplomatic pressure failed last month at a
meeting of foreign ministers of the Organisation of American States,
held in Cancún. The Mexican hosts thought they had more than the 23
votes needed (out of 34) to condemn Venezuela. They got only 20, as Mr
Maduro's diplomats won over wavering Caribbean mini-states with threats
to cut off cheap oil. The outcome, says a Latin American diplomat,
depended on how much pressure the United States was prepared to put on
the Caribbean. Not enough: Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, stayed
away to deal with Qatar. Though Venezuela is more isolated than ever in
its region, Mr Maduro could claim a kind of victory.

Even had the motion passed, it might have changed little. The only
potential obstacles to Mr Maduro's gambit are on his own side. Many
chavistas oppose the constituent assembly. "Democratic chavismo is
significant in terms of popular sentiment," says David Smilde, a
Venezuela specialist at Tulane University. "But it's completely
disorganised." Although there have been intermittent protests in
chavista areas of Caracas, usually over food shortages, the opposition
has failed to link up with dissidents from the regime in a truly
national protest movement.
The armed forces, which sustain Mr Maduro in power, have wavered but not
bent—so far, at least. Several retired generals who were close to Chávez
have criticised the idea of a new assembly. At least 14 junior officers
have been arrested since the protests began. On June 20th the president
stripped the defence minister, General Vladimiro Padrino, of the
powerful post of the operational commander of the armed forces. To some
analysts, this looked like an expression of mistrust.

Tension is rising. On June 27th a police officer in a helicopter buzzed
the supreme court and interior ministry. A pro-government mob attacked
the parliament, and large-scale looting took place in Maracay, west of
Caracas.

Mr Maduro and his circle lack the aura of heroism that originally
surrounded Fidel Castro. "If chavista Venezuela was a caricature of the
Cuban revolution, Maduro is a caricature of the caricature," says the
Latin American diplomat. There is no revolution in Venezuela, just
squalid abuse of power. More blood may be spilled before this tragedy ends.

Source: Adiós to Venezuelan democracy -
https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21724388-nicol-s-maduro-prepares-caricature-caricature-cuba-adi-s-venezuelan-democracy