Andres Oppenheimer: A new day in Venezuela?

Andres Oppenheimer: A new day in Venezuela?

Critical election for new Congress on Dec. 6
Polls show opposition headed for big win
Some fear Maduro could weaken next legislature
BY ANDRÉS OPPENHEIMER
aoppenheimer@miamiherald.com

Venezuela's Dec. 6 congressional elections will be the most undemocratic
Latin America has seen in recent history, with the exception of Cuba's.
And yet, the opposition is likely to win the popular vote by a
landslide, triggering what may be the beginning of the end of the
country's corrupt socialist regime.

The election rules set by Venezuelan government-controlled National
Electoral Tribunal, or CNE, couldn't be more unfair. The CNE has written
the rules in such a way that the opposition must win more than 60
percent of the popular vote and dodge dozens of dirty tricks to win a
majority in Congress.

It's no coincidence that President Nicolás Maduro is not allowing
credible international observers from the Organization of American
States nor the European Union. Maduro's CNE will only accept a
delegation of friendly visitors from South America's UNASUR group, which
independent election experts say will do little more than political
tourism on election day.

A study released last week by the Andres Bello Catholic University of
Venezuela and International Institute for Democracy and International
Assistance lists a series of irregularities that go far beyond the
massive use of state funds by government candidates, government control
of the media, intimidation of voters, arbitrary bans on opposition
leaders from running for office, and imprisonment of political leaders,
such as Leopoldo Lopez.

According to Venezuela's election laws, sparsely populated states that
traditionally vote for the ruling party will enjoy much greater
representation in Congress than much more populated states controlled by
the opposition. For instance, the 1.1 million population Lara state,
where the opposition is strong, will elect only two legislators, the
same as the 87,000 population pro-government Amazonas state.

In addition, electoral ballots are printed to confuse opposition voters.
The logo of the opposition coalition, known by its acronym MUD, is
placed on the ballot sheets right next to an almost identical logo with
similar initials, but that corresponds to a camouflaged pro-government
party.

And yet, pollsters say that the opposition will win by a huge margin
because of Venezuela's economic and social collapse. The country's
economy has contracted a whopping 8 percent this year, its nearly 200
percent inflation rate is the highest in the world and there are
widespread food shortages.

A new poll by the Venezuelan firm Datanalisis, which in the past has
predicted government victories, says 63 percent of the popular vote will
go for opposition candidates, while only 28 percent for government ones.

Alfredo Croes, of the Venebarometro polling firm, told me that even with
the disproportionate representation rules, the opposition is likely to
win 103 seats in the 167-seat Congress. That would be more than the 84
seats the opposition would need to have a simple majority that would
enable it to control the country's budget, and to start corruption and
drug-trafficking investigations.

My opinion: Until recently, I used to think that Maduro would stage a
self-coup before Dec. 6, concocting yet another conspiracy theory about
alleged destabilization plots by the United States, Colombia and even
Guyana as an excuse to cancel the elections.

But it may be too late for that. Friends in Venezuela tell me that given
the widespread anti-government sentiment, Maduro would risk a social
explosion if he cancels the vote.

Granted, if he allows the vote, Maduro could still stage a post-election
coup. He may decide he cannot allow an opposition-controlled National
Assembly to start investigations into government corruption and drug
trafficking. He may try to control the new Congress, either by buying
off opposition legislators or by significantly curtailing the new
legislature's powers.

But, this time, it won't be easy for Maduro to get away with dictatorial
measures. Things have changed. With world oil prices at record lows, he
has less money to buy loyalties at home and abroad. Financially crippled
Brazil is beginning to distance itself from Venezuela, and Argentine
polls show that opposition leader Mauricio Macri — an open critic of
Maduro's authoritarianism — is poised to win Sunday's elections.
Venezuela may no longer count on South America's biggest countries to
validate its electoral abuses.

For the first time in many years, Venezuela's opposition may have the
upper hand, and may go on the offensive after Dec. 6.

Watch "Oppenheimer Presenta" at 9 p.m. Sundays on CNN en Español.
Twitter: @oppenheimera

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